Thursday, December 31, 2009

Indian Time Bomb

A lot of ink has been wasted in the last few years about the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China). While there is some truth there, I think that a lot of it is overdone. Russia is dying. There population is declining by almost 1/2 of one percent per annum. In 50 years, their population will decline 25%. That would be 30 million fewer Russians. China is growing about 0.5% which will produce a 30% increase to 1.7 B total. Not easy to handle, but possible for a country its size. Brazil is growing at a 1.2% rate, taking their current 200M population over 350M. Not a problem for Brazil. (There goes the Amazon jungle!). But worst of all is India. They are growing at 1.5% per year. They currently have a population of 1.1B. In 50 years, that will more than double! Not sustainable! Especially, since there is a serious imbalance between the sexes with 1.1 males for every female, currently almost 50M more men than women. Imagine 2B people crammed into a country the size of India with 100M men who have no hope of finding a mate. It isn't going to happen. India is going to collapse first. War, social calamity and poverty will continue to be the story of India in the coming decades, unfortunately.

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