Thursday, December 03, 2009

Reversals Everywhere
















I could post a dozen more but I don't want to bore you anymore than you already are.

The first chart of BAC. Who really thinks that BAC giving back $45 B of cheap, gov't money and diluting shareholders is a great idea? Even the geniuses who bought the stock this morning at a 6% plus premium may be reconsidering this one. If the market is a big voting machine, this idea was just voted down! My previous post about shorting BAC is now a profitable position. I personally shorted this AM at 16.45 and covered at 15.95, which I am now regretting. I still see potential to below 14, with a stop at 14.75 first.

The second chart is the Dow Trannies. If these recent highs are not taken out soon, real soon, we will have a real Dow Theory non-confirmation, divergence or sell signal. Could this be related to the ISM survey showing that Healthcare and Finance were expanding while Real Estate Mgmt, Construction, Mining, Food Services and Transportation all declining. In other words, not much Transportation is required to knock people over the head and steal their wallet sending them to the hospital compared to digging something out of the ground, growing and preparing food, building something or maintaining that something you just built. Simply put, the phony economy is still growing while just about everything else in the real economy (with the possible exception of Retail, although most of that is phony and much of it is probably temporary and will evaporate soon after Santa head back to the North Pole) is shrinking.

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