Sunday, November 04, 2012

USD Dollar Bull

OK. So my last post projected that the US Dollar was about to breakout.  It didn't happen.  At least not yet.  But it did not break down.  After trying to breakout in June-July, it failed and fell back and looked headed for a breakDOWN.  That has not played out yet either.  So while it is frustrating, my belief is that the bull is trying to frustrate as many as possible.  Now Ben Bernanke may decide to start printing US Dollars like crazy and flinging them out of helpicopters (or some such crazy idea!).  But my feeling is that he is getting fatigued.  And while I am sure that he would come to the rescue in the case of a big crash, it seems to me that he is trying to do "just enough" to keep things together and not let them get out of hand.  He had to do something before the election, but it modest and partially limited through the end of this year.  So I believe the USD bull market is intact.  What does this mean for precious metals?  Not sure, but probably not good in the short run.  Although metals weakness would probably be a good opportunity to accumulate for the long run, because the US currency is as flawed as any other paper currency and may eventually be challenged.  But for now, stay long the USD (and stay away from JPY which seem to have topped recently).

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