Bullish 4th Quarter? Part 2

Last time I mentioned that 1175 or so is necessary by Dec. 31 2009. This is for both technical and fundamental reasons. But what about if the market simply goes up, but not by that much? Let's look at the technicals for that instance. Here is a quarterly chart with a hypothetical closing of 1075 for the S&P 500.
This would represent a gain over the 3rd quarter close. But it would not be strong enough to generate clear technical signals that all is well. Notice momentum would remain negative and declining. Prices would remain well below the long-term MA. The point we are at today is comparable to April 1974 if the 1973-1974 analogy is to hold. The market vaulted more than 10% higher in that quarter ending in June 1974. There was no rush to buy though as prices tested the April '74 levels in Q1 1978. This may not have been possible to sit out for professional traders, but that is one of the advantages of individual investors being able to wait on the sidelines.

But there are the parameters for the S%P 500 in bookend fashion. If Q4 2009 sees 1175 then the bull is alive, 1075 or lower and the bear is still in control. What about the fundamentals? Could they provide clues to where we are today? I will look at that in the next post.