Saturday, November 07, 2009

Conservatives versus Liberals

What would happen to this country if the hard-line conservatives take over from the their more liberal counterparts? Would it pit the urban, coastal elites against the more conservative citizens of the heartland? Would the financial titans face a conflict with the industrial and agricultural Midwest? Would private enterprise face an attack from governments sponsored entities? Would the army get more resources? Would environmental remediation take a back seat or the drivers seat? Would import duties be raised or cut?

Well, "this country" is not the good, old US of A that I am talking about, the bad, new PR of C, otherwise known simply as China. Yes, THAT China! Rana Foroohar argues that China is not a monolith in a recent Newsweek article

Like all "one way" trades, they work until they don't. And then, BAM!, the bottom drops out. Could it happen in China? Sure, anything can. Especially, when the government is responsible for 88% of the growth, government debt is more than 70% of GDP and the government directly controls 50% of the economy. Surely, some of that $600 billion worth of stimulus injected since September 2008 has gone to unproductive projects. Say, about 100%? Roads to nowhere, high-rise apartment and office building which may never be occupied and financial assets which not be worth much more than the paper they are printed on? Does any of this sound familiar? Maybe we are not in such bad shape in the US after all? Of course, considering that the Chinese are buying at least one third of the government debt we are churning out this year and next, maybe we are actually in worse shape than we think. Dependent upon a creditor who, at least in the short run, may be even more irresponsible than we are, at least in the short run.

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