Kicking the Can Down the Road...

Well, if I do say so myself, I enjoyed reading my last post. Definitely not my worst work! On the other hand... the post before that one? That was pure, first-class garbage! Oil not going to spend much time above $100? Hey, I am only off by $27, so far.

Of course, I could blame it on Ben Bernanke, but since I already have so much stuff that I am going to blame on him, I am going to graciously accept all the guilt. I am surprised how quick the Fed has been to fall back onto its old tricks. It typically found itself behind the curve of a faltering economy with an inverted yield curve and then panicked! And now short-term rates are 3-4% below the rate of inflation (not related to the so-called CPI the liars in charge of our government statistics office publish). And guess what, the "animal insticts" are coming out again. And the yield curve is pretty steeply positive again and extremely likely to become more so in the months ahead. Not a time to sell your hard assets, like gold and silver, although the real estate market may still have a ways to go until it hits bottom. But the grains and the metals, not to mention the oils may have some legs yet. Of course, the savvy among you are taking my bullishness in these markets as a sign to lighten up and you may be right, because my bones are telling me that the stock market is extended, oil is overly parabolic and gold is not cheap at $900. So what is a poor speculator to do? Well, for the next month or so, stay out of stocks, use strength to lighten up your bond portfolio and buy any dips in the silver or gold markets.