Friday, March 11, 2011

Noose Tightening


Let's look at the dollar.  The US Dollar has spent the better part of 3 years going nowhere.  In an extraordinarily volatile time, the USD has been relatively stable.  This does not mean that it is the best place for your money or even a good place.  But what is interesting is that even with a quietly overt assault by its supposed supporters (the Fed and Treasury) it has shown itself to be surprisingly resilient.  And now we are at a point where there is not much room to easily and safely push the US Dollar down.  If more pressure is brought forth to push it lower, commodity prices will respond in an opposite direction.  And the commodity response will be proportionately greater due to the leverage involved in these markets.  This can be witnessed in the similar net gain in the oil market compared to the dollar, but the volatility has been shaking economies and governments to their foundations around the world.  And sometimes those foundations have crumbled. I don't know whether these revolutions are a good thing.  I have my doubts.  But I admire the resiliency of the dollar.  The Yuan may be the up and coming currency or it may not.  But there is no way that in this decade it will supplant the US Dollar as the reserve currency of the world.  Look at the monthly, weekly and daily charts above and decide for yourself.